How to Predict the Future – Two Approaches

Q: I’ve often wondered if you can predict the future using the stars and constellations? Particularly, in this economy when everyone’s feeling the pinch. Any thoughts?

A: First of all, let me say that predicting the future isn’t really a mystery at all. In fact anyone can predict the future based on what they are doing now. In other words, “You don’t need a crystal ball” to do it. You just look out, it’s cloudy, you turn your sunglasses on, and you take your coat off. Or, a bit more complex, you listen to consumer spending going down, then you fear tech buying will decline, and so you quit looking at those businesses for some time.

But what I’d like to suggest is there are two approaches you can take to predicting the future, depending on which approach you are interested in pursuing. If you’re into big history, that’s easy. Just look back through history and see what major events took place around major dates in that big history. Now, what you’re doing is applying astrological principles and zooming in on the big picture. And since astrology and astronomy have been around for thousands of years, one can make a reasonable estimate as to the likely effects of any given event will have on today’s world.

However, if you’re interested in applying mathematics to forecasting the future, then you’ll find there are many mathematically based approaches you can take. For example, one of the largest established systems of predicting U.S. statehood voting trends has been utilized for more than 30 years now. The program is called “Smartest Guys Ever” and it predicts the likely outcome of statehood election results based on voter turnout data collected over three decades. Click here for more information about love tarot reading.

But there is a problem with this approach. The claim testing method is based upon the idea that the future means different things to different people, so each person will arrive at a prediction based upon their individual history and circumstances. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, except it doesn’t give us a way to test whether or not our predictions are correct. There are a couple of methods to do this, but the most popular way is to use statistics from past results. If we can determine which states tend to have high turnout in presidential elections, then we can test a hypothesis concerning the probability that a given event will take place.

So now you know two ways to predict the future, based upon your knowledge of the big history of mankind and a few carefully chosen bits of statistical information. Whichever method you choose, however you choose to predict the future, I’d suggest you go after the method that makes more sense to you. Personally, I’ll go for the long-range prediction because it’s more accurate and it makes more sense to me.

Mooc

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Post comment